AON forecasts that according to its 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report medical plan costs globally will rise by an average of 9% in 2027.
The report arrives at a time of continued global uncertainty, from ongoing geopolitical tensions to the rapid adoption of AI. Despite these challenges, inflation is easing in many parts of the world and currency markets have generally become more stable, helping to reduce some of the underlying pressures driving medical cost increases.
“The 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report shows encouraging signs that medical cost increases are slowing across many parts of the world,” said Kathryn Davis, Head of Global Benefits Analytics, Aon. “However, employers should not mistake moderation for relief. Healthcare costs continue to rise significantly faster than inflation in many markets, driven by long-term pressures such as aging populations, chronic disease, workforce shortages and increasing demand for advanced treatments. Organizations that take a proactive, data-driven approach to managing health and benefits programs will be best positioned to balance affordability with access to quality care.”
Medical trend rates are expected to ease across most regions in 2027. North America’s gross medical trend rate is projected to decline slightly to 9.2%, marking the first time in five years that the region’s forecast has come in below the previous year’s projection. Meanwhile Asia-Pacific (APAC) is expected to see a more significant decrease to 9.7%, driven largely by lower projections in China and India. Europe’s rate is projected to fall from 8.2% in 2026 to 7.5% in 2027, with most countries reporting flat or lower trends. Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) is expected to remain largely stable at 10.4%, while the Middle East and Africa (MEA) is projected to experience the largest decline, falling from 15.3% to 12.2% as inflation eases, although underlying healthcare cost pressures persist.
Key Medical Conditions Driving Costs in 2027
- Cardiovascular appeared as a top three condition in every region, with the biggest impact on claims in APAC, Europe and LAC. More than 25 countries reported this as their most impactful condition.
- Cancer/Tumor Growth was identified as a top five condition in every region with 25 countries reporting it as the most impactful condition. Cancer continues to raise treatment costs and increase demand for specialist care.
- High Blood Pressure/Hypertension remains particularly prominent in MEA and LAC, with 14 countries identifying it as their most impactful condition. In addition to its direct impact on claims costs, hypertension plays a significant role in the development of cardiovascular disease and other high-cost health conditions.
Another emerging factor shaping healthcare costs globally is the growing use of GLP-1 medications for the treatment of diabetes and obesity. These therapies are now available in nearly 70% of surveyed countries and are covered by employer-sponsored medical plans in many markets. While employers continue to evaluate how these medications fit within their health and wellbeing strategies, increasing utilization of GLP-1s is expected to contribute to rising pharmaceutical costs and medical trend rates in the years ahead.
The survey was conducted at over 100 Aon locations that broker, administer or advise on employer-sponsored medical plans.
Read Aon’s 2027 Global Medical Trend Rate Report here.
